NATO StratCom chief: I cannot promise Latvia a peaceful and predictable future

Under current conditions, when a war goes on in Latvia’s neighbouring country, climate change continues and there are other global crisis keep appearing, it needs to be said that the stability under which Latvia has lived for the past 25 years is over, said NATO StratCom chief Jānis Sārts.

«We have entered a period of instability dictated by the war in Ukraine and China’s increasing influence, as well as climate change. All of it generates pressure on many parts of the world and may cause another influx of refugees,» explained Sārts.

Because of these reasons there is no point in making false promises and expecting a peaceful predictable future for Latvia.

HE ALSO SAID WITH UKRAINIAN ARMY DEFEATING RUSSIA, BALTIC STATES WILL STILL HAVE RISKS TO DEAL WITH.

«Russia’s defeat in the war will cause instability in the Kremlin and all of Russia. We can see a number of independent power centres – army, security services, Wagner forces commanded by Yevgeniy Prigozhin, Rosgvardiya. Instability in the Kremlin could lead to a fight for power among these groups. This is not good news for Baltic States,» said Sārts.

The head of StratCom said one believable scenario is for the Federal Security Service to take over in Russia.

«New power players have appears, such as Prigozhin, who has an absolutely loyal armed force behind him – Wagner group, which is a professional mercenary army,» said Sārts.

As for military threats, Latvian expert stressed that the war in Ukraine has weakened Russia’s military capabilities for the next decade. Nevertheless, he believes uncertainty mainly comes from the way power could be taken in Russia, which groups will be involved and how it all ends.

When asked about the preparedness of Latvian residents for instability and new challenges, Sārts said «there are people disloyal to Latvia here, but the myth of Russia’s power collapsing has reduced their numbers».

«Gravitational centres keep changing for these people because the collapse of the myth of Russia’s power has made many of them reconsider,» said NATO StratCom chief.